Opposition Leader, Anthony Albanese put the spotlight on farming when he told the ABC’s Insiders program last Sunday that under a Labor Government, agriculture would be included in an economy-wide carbon neutral by 2050 target. The world’s population is expected to reach 9.1 billion people in 2050, up from 7.4 billion in 2016. Loos J, Abson DJ, Chappell MJ, Hanspach J, Mikulcak F, Tichit M, Fischer J. Mortensen DA, Egan JF, Maxwell BD, Ryan MR, Smith RG. In 2013, they were grown on 47% of global cropland and provided 63% and 56% of calories and protein, respectively, from human-edible crops (table S3; FAO 2016). To double by 2050 from a 2005 baseline, yield growth would have to be maintained at 1.5% per year. Specifying quantitative targets will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that sustainable intensification efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. In addition to a literature review and “crunching” the existing data, he will conduct an online survey targeted at farmers and people directly engaged in agriculture. However, establishing clear targets will help researchers focus on these long-term challenges. 2013, Davis et al. Media Office, UNSW Sydney NSW 2052 Australia Since direct agricultural GHG emissions have been steadily climbing, achieving this level of reduction by 2050 would require an abrupt shift in emissions trajectory (figure 1b, table S3). We use the most recent FAOSTAT data (FAO 2016), from 2014, as the baseline for our projections. These goals will need to be refined periodically as new information becomes available, given the uncertainty of long-term projections. Each point represents the compound annual growth rate of global average cereal yields over the 5 previous years (FAO 2016). (c) Historical total phosphorus loading in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin and 2035 goal (in gigagrams). Scientists also face a limited number of opportunities to develop and test new production and conservation strategies. The goals of sustainable intensification extend beyond aggregate production and environmental performance. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. There is a particularly urgent need to quantify the reductions in pollution and land degradation that must be achieved to sustain functioning ecosystems at multiple scales (Neufeldt et al. 2016). Achieving both production and environmental goals will require shifts in US agricultural policy. We use global demand for cereals as a proxy for total crop demand to illustrate the production increase needed by 2050. Agriculture has been front and centre of the national conversation about whether Australia should target net zero carbon emissions by 2050. Many authors also call for agriculture to become more environmentally sustainable, but with little urgency and few quantitative targets. How can we feed this growing population and take better care of our environment? Pg, petagram; Gg, gigagram. We illustrate this goal using P data because the trends for total N and reactive N are diverging and the Gulf Hypoxia Task Force goal applies only to total N. Because total N has been declining more rapidly than reactive N, using total N would indicate greater progress toward the goal than has actually been made. With a population projected to reach a staggering 9.8 billion by 2050, farmers will have to produce more food than ever before. Projected changes in total habitat (mean habitat loss in a cell multiplied by the number of species present) caused by agriculture expansion by 2050. This database contains projections used for the preparation of the report "The future of food and agriculture – Alternative pathways to 2050". 2013, Pretty and Bharucha 2014). “By 2050 effective regulations may minimize the loss of agricultural productivity and lead to a more economically sustainable water system with moderate investment in infrastructure to store and move water. In contrast, agriculture's environmental performance is going in the wrong direction: Aggregate impacts are increasing and must drop sharply over the coming decades (figure 1b–c, supplemental table S3). The FAO also adjusted its projection to account for potential saturation of meat consumption in the largest developing country, China, and cultural factors limiting the growth of meat consumption in the second largest, India (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Research and policy should pivot to align with this strategy, both in the United States and globally. To avoid the worst impacts of climate change, Foley and colleagues (2011) called for an 80% reduction in agricultural GHG emissions. Based on current trends, experts anticipate a range of developments that will help agriculture keep pace with the world population’s rapidly expanding dietary needs. Van Ittersum MK, Cassman KG, Grassini P, Wolf J, Tittonell P, Hochman Z, Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. Food demand is projected to climb, while environmental impacts must plummet. This material is based on work supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. These goals will clarify the scope of the challenges that agriculture must face in the coming decades, focus research and policy on achieving specific outcomes, and ensure that SI efforts lead to measurable environmental improvements. 2015). Decrease in world cereal yield growth rate over time. 2014). We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling SI targets for both production and the environment. “It’s key that these forecasts of future scenarios reach as wide an audience as possible,” he says. Many authors also call for agricul- ture to become more environmentally sustainable, but … 2013, Long et al. Approximately 795 million people are hungry today, despite adequate global food production, because poverty, lack of infrastructure, poor governance, natural disasters, and political unrest restrict food access (FAO et al. Farmers globally must increase food production 70 percent compared to 2007 levels to meet the needs of the larger population, according to a report from the … 2016), implying that the projected increase must occur from today's production levels. Dr Joshua Zeunert from UNSW Built Environment. Second, the price-weighted basis of the FAO figures implies a larger increase in crop demand than is actually projected on a mass basis: For example, FAO projects only a 46% increase in cereals demand (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Mueller ND, Gerber JS, Johnston M, Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA. Second, applied agricultural research should focus on developing production systems that can simultaneously meet both production and environmental targets while helping farmers adapt to a range of emerging challenges, such as mounting water shortages (Falkenmark 2013, Elliott et al. Conservation incentive programs help producers implement many environmentally beneficial practices, but they are not structured to produce maximum benefits. Agriculture in 2050: The Path Forward October 11, 2017 As the third speaker in our series on genetically engineered crops, Mr. Hunter examines how many people we need to feed by 2050 and how this can be done sustainably. Our updates to the FAO (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012) and Tilman and colleagues’ (2011) projections indicate that production of cereals must only increase 26% and 68% from 2014 levels, respectively, to meet 2050 demand (figure 1a, table S1). We also linearly transform both estimates to account for differences between the original projections’ assumed 2050 population and the latest United Nations analysis (UN 2015). 2017). Research and policy should pivot to align with this strategy, both in the United States and globally. This error is particularly misleading when authors explicitly graph 2050 demand as a doubling from current levels (e.g., Long et al. 2011, West et al. First, the FAO projection of a 60% increase is frequently misquoted as a 70% increase when authors cite an earlier FAO report (Alexandratos 2006). Public and scientific discourse on the subject focuses primarily on two studies (Tilman et al. Historical data are shown in solid lines, and future projections and goal trajectories are shown in dashed or dotted lines (see supplemental tables S1 and S3). Goals should reflect the updated projection that production must increase approximately 25%–70% from recent levels to meet demand in 2050. Almost 90% of the world's animal species will lose some habitat to agriculture by 2050. by David Williams and Michael Clark, The Conversation. In contrast, current SI environmental targets are unclear and unlikely to inspire action. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2012) argues that with decelerating population growth and saturation of diets in many parts of the world, agricultural production growth will increase by some 60 percent between 2005 and 2050 – a huge drop from the 170 percent increase observed between 1960 and 2005. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012, USGS 2015, FAO 2016. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is dominated by an imbalanced narrative that calls for food production to increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—without specifying commensurate environmental goals. Gulf Hypoxia Action Plan 2008 for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Improving Water Quality in the Mississippi River Basin, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force: 2015 Report to Congress, Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, Beyond climate-smart agriculture: Toward safe operating spaces for global food systems, What is sustainable intensification? Quantitative targets can help guide these policy efforts and promote effective collaborations among researchers, farmers, government agencies, and civil-society groups. 2011, Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). Second, Tilman and colleagues (2011) projected that demand for calories and protein from human-edible crops will increase by 100% and 110%, respectively, from a 2005 baseline. Indirect emissions from land-use change in agriculture and forestry contribute another 12% (IPCC 2014). The Food and Agriculture Organisation, the United Nations’ agency charged with thinking about such matters, published a report in 2009 which suggested that by 2050 agricultural … All data and projections are available in the supplemental materials. We propose new directions for research and policy to help meet both sustainability and production goals. The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme. These will enable him to extract key indicators from text, data and mapping – which is often isolated – into spatial datasets and overlays. 2013, Rockström et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. The prevailing discourse on the future of agriculture is rife with the assertion that food production must increase dramatically—potentially doubling by 2050—to meet surging demand. The discrepancy between the two cereal demand ­projections—26% versus 68%—is largely due to differences in model assumptions. Climate Change, Agriculture, and Adaptation in the Republic of Korea to 2050; An Integrated Assessment. Regulatory change must include innovative policy and rules to secure property rights and markets to allow for water transfers and groundwater recharge,” he said. The aim of his project is to forecast scenarios of what Australian agriculture might look like and entail in 2050, and to ensure Australia's food supply landscapes and systems remain sustainable. If the entire world’s peoples work together, a secure and sustainable water future can be ours.” (Kofi Annan, World Water Day 2002). However, both US and global data on concerns ranging from biodiversity loss and land conversion to irrigation-water withdrawals—in addition to GHG emissions and nutrient pollution—indicate that agriculture leaves a large and growing footprint (Foley et al. Dr Joshua Zeunert's new project will forecast potential scenarios to inform decision-makers and help ensure our food supply security. Calls to double food production from today's levels are not supported by existing projections. Based on the information Dr Zeunert collates, he will create scenarios and use a technique called ‘scenario testing’ to seek feedback from the experts previously consulted. Meeting food demand while maintaining functioning ecosystems will require a recalibrated SI strategy, in which up-to-date production goals are coupled with quantitative environmental targets. 2013), and the changing climate (Challinor et al. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences. 2017). This, in turn, fosters a produce-at-all-costs mentality, which may exacerbate existing environmental challenges by increasing the use of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and tillage. To quantify resource use in agriculture in 2050 virtual resource content (VRC) factors were established (Odegard, 2011). 2017). Protofarm 2050 acknowledges that there is no silver bullet with the problem of sustainable farming, and instead focuses on an array of scenarios that could become viable in the future. Moreover, many environmental regulations currently exempt agricultural activities. 2016), and (b) SI environmental goals should aim to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning in both managed and natural systems (Neufeldt et al. To double from a 2005 baseline, in contrast, cereal yields would have to grow continually at a compound annual rate of over 1.5%, which has not been achieved consistently since the mid-1980s ­(figure 2). Of course, ending hunger and malnutrition will require multiple crop types, including pulses, roots, vegetables, and fruits, many of which will need to be produced and marketed locally. 2013, Tittonell 2014). In contrast to the literature on food demand, there has been little discussion of specific environmental goals for agriculture in 2050 or of the sector's trajectory toward such goals. UNSW Built Environment senior lecturer Dr Joshua Zeunert has received an Australia Research Council (ARC) Discovery Early Career Researcher Award (DECRA) of $417,128. 2015). The FAO projected cereals demand in 2050 directly (Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012). DGE1255832. 2011, Tilman et al. To illustrate the true scope of agriculture's environmental challenges, we analyze the sector's performance against quantitative targets that have been proposed to achieve specific environmental outcomes: mitigating climate change and limiting eutrophication in the Gulf of Mexico. For permissions, please e-mail: Mesophication of Oak Landscapes: Evidence, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Research, Growing Threats to the Scientific and Educational Legacies of Research Stations and Field CoursesKelly Swing, Elizabeth Braker, Peggy Fiedler, Ian Billick, Christopher Lorentz, and David Wagner, Great Expectations: Deconstructing the Process Pathways Underlying Beaver-Related Restoration, Robot Ecology: An Inspiration for Future Ecologists, The Invasion Ecology of Sleeper Populations: Prevalence, Persistence, and Abrupt Shifts, http://news.monsanto.com/press-release/monsanto-will-undertake-three-point-commitment-double-yield-three-major-crops-make-mor, http://toxics.usgs.gov/hypoxia/mississippi/flux_ests/delivery/index.html, Receive exclusive offers and updates from Oxford Academic, Copyright © 2021 American Institute of Biological Sciences. (b) Historical and projected direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture and 2050 goal. At the same time, nutrient losses and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture must drop dramatically to restore and maintain ecosystem functioning. We thank Armen Kemanian, Nicholas Jordan, Adam Davis, and the three anonymous reviewers for suggestions that improved the manuscript and Emily Pia for assistance with the analysis. In 2001, an intergovernmental task force set a goal to reduce the average size of the dead zone to 5000 km2 by 2015, which would require reducing annual N and P loading to a level 45% below the 1980–1996 average (MRGMWNTF 2001, 2008). Supplementary data are available at BIOSCI online. Calls to double crop production from a recent baseline imply growth rates outside of the range of empirical projections. Agricultural production activities directly contribute 11%–13% of the world's total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC 2014). Cereal production increased 24% from 2005 to 2014 because of both yield improvements and the expansion of cropped area (supplemental tables S1 and S5; FAO 2016). /4 /NET-ZERO AGRICULTURE IN 2050: HOW TO GET THERE This report explores how the EU farming sector could look like in a net-zero world, what roles it would play and what is needed to make the transition by mid-century. To smooth interannual variation, growth rates were calculated using 5-year moving average cereal yields. “And the tragic recent [bushfire] events, which perhaps demonstrate how widespread change can quickly occur, will also make us want to look at that claim a little more closely.”. “The government’s existing narrative is that Australia feeds 60 million people and thus, because we produce a lot more food than we need ourselves, our food security isn’t seen as a concern. He completed his PhD by publication in 2018 which, he says, gave him a “track record” for his first DECRA application just a year later. These programs carry only minimal environmental requirements, which provide limited protection against erosion and the loss of some wetlands and grasslands, but fail to target nutrient loss, air quality, GHG emissions, and other concerns. The two projections have drastically different implications for the future of crop production. All rights reserved. Views from experts, Sustainable intensification in agricultural systems, Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050, Reconciling agricultural productivity and environmental integrity: A grand challenge for agriculture, Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability, Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health, Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture, Ecological intensification of agriculture: Sustainable by nature, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision, Key Findings and Advance Tables, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grants Program: Food Security Program 2015 Request for Applications, USDA National Nutrient Database for Standard Reference, [USEPA] US Environmental Protection Agency, Annual Nutrient Flux and Concurrent Streamflow: Updated through Water Year 2015, Yield gap analysis with local to global relevance: A review, Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment, Using pay-for-performance conservation to address the challenges of the next farm bill. Meeting food demand while maintaining functioning ecosystems will require a recalibrated SI strategy, in which up-to-date production goals are coupled with quantitative environmental targets. Meanwhile, agriculture's environmental impacts need to fall rapidly to protect critical ecosystem functions. 2015). Global agriculture towards 2050: High-level Expert Forum on how to feed the world in 2050, 12-13 Oct 2009 Format Analysis Source. Dr Zeunert is hoping the project will help inform politicians, natural resource managers, environmental planners, primary producers and the agricultural community, and also the wider community. Agriculture will face many challenges in the future and the growing population will require a drastic increase in food supply. Calls for doubling current production by 2050 should be avoided. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. As figure 1c shows, P loading has been increasing, and meeting the 45% reduction goal would require a significant shift in trajectory (see also table S3). Here, we focus on the US context. 2011-67003-30343 and USDA Organic Research and Extension Initiative grant no. Our targets are based on the following standards: (a) SI production goals should aim to meet projected global food demand while recognizing that factors beyond aggregate production also affect hunger and malnutrition (FAO et al. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%-70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. media@unsw.edu.au and underpinning a huge slice of our economy. 2011, West et al. Both of these projections account for crops used as animal feed and, to a limited extent, as biofuel feedstock. 2013, van Ittersum et al. For full access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription. Given these two factors, what will agriculture look like in 2050? Total land in agriculture has risen since 2005 in Africa, South America, and Asia (supplemental table S6; FAO 2016), indicating continued land conversion at the expense of native ecosystems, and conversion continues in the United States as well (Lark et al. It furthers the University's objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide, This PDF is available to Subscribers Only. The research enterprise led by the National Science Foundation and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) should prioritize efforts to identify and meet quantitative production and environmen… Projected 2050 demand for oilcrops is 46% higher than 2014 production levels based on the FAO projection and 50% higher based on a doubling from 2005 (table S2). We aim to rebalance this narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury targets for both production and the environment. The second largest in the world, this dead zone reached 22,000 square kilometers (km2) in 2002 and averages 13,650 km2 per year (EPA 2016). Under the FAO projection, the rate of average annual cereal yield growth could fall gradually over the next 35 years and still meet demand using only existing cropland. To bring US policy in line with future needs, producers who receive subsidies should be required to meet more stringent environmental standards, conservation programs should be reformed to tie payments to quantified outcomes (Winsten and Hunter 2011), and effective regulatory backstops should be instituted to control the most environmentally damaging practices. 2015, Buckley 2016). 2009 Developed other Developing Least Developed World 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Billion High Level Expert Forum - How to Feed the World in 2050 Office of the Director, Agricultural … To synthesise the wide array of existing information, Dr Zeunert will use a conceptual framework that draws on established and overlapping processes – sieve mapping, GIS (geographic information systems) and geodesign. Current policy heavily favors production, including through crop insurance and revenue- and price-based subsidy payments for commodity crops. Our analysis shows that an increase of approximately 25%–70% above current production levels may be sufficient to meet 2050 crop demand. A new report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO, 2012) argues that with decelerating population growth and saturation of diets in many parts of the world, agricultural production growth will increase by some 60 per cent between 2005 and 2050 – a huge drop from the 170 per cent increase observed between 1960 and 2005. 2013, Ray et al. Search for other works by this author on: World Agriculture: Towards 2030/2050, Interim Report, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050: The 2012 Revision, Ecological intensification: Harnessing ecosystem services for food security, Public and Private Sector Interventions for Global Food Security: A Report from the Aspen Institute Food Security Strategy Group, Ecological intensification of cereal production systems: Yield potential, soil quality, and precision agriculture, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, A meta-analysis of crop yield under climate change and adaptation, To close the yield-gap while saving biodiversity will require multiple locally relevant strategies, Global synthesis of drought effects on maize and wheat production, Meeting future food demand with current agricultural resources, Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change, Growing water scarcity in agriculture: Future challenge to global water security, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, [FAO] Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, World Food Programme, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015, Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: Taking Stock of Uneven Progress, Sustainable intensification in agriculture: Premises and policies, Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends, Water level declines in the high plains aquifer: Predevelopment to resource senescence, [IAASTD] International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science, and Technology for Development, [IPCC] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change, [IPES-Food] International Panel of Experts on Sustainable Food Systems, From Uniformity to Diversity: A Paradigm Shift from Industrial Agriculture to Diversified Agroecological Systems, Cropland expansion outpaces agricultural and biofuel policies in the United States, Meeting the global food demand of the future by engineering crop photosynthesis and yield potential, Putting meaning back into “sustainable intensification.”, Illinois river nitrate–nitrogen concentrations and loads: Long-term variation and association with watershed nitrogen inputs, Monsanto Will Undertake Three-Point Commitment to Double Yield in Three Major Crops, Make More Efficient Use of Natural Resources and Improve Farmer Lives, Navigating a critical juncture for sustainable weed management, [MRGMWNTF] Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, Action Plan for Reducing, Mitigating, and Controlling Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Mississippi River/Gulf of Mexico Watershed Nutrient Task Force, 2008. 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This strategy, both in the United Nations, International Fund for agricultural,. Regions ( Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 ) and Tilman and colleagues ( 2011 did... Impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways climate ( Challinor et al and discourse... Than 35 chances to transform their production systems by midcentury biofuel feedstock from recent levels to meet 2050 crop to... Have secure access to this pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription how... Population projected to climb, while environmental impacts must plummet demand ­projections—26 % versus 68 % largely! Fao projected cereals demand in 2050 virtual resource content ( VRC ) factors were established ( Odegard, 2011 did! Moreover, many environmental regulations currently exempt agricultural activities decrease in world yield. Pdf, sign in to an existing account, or purchase an annual subscription Organic research and policy help... Our projections % above current production by 2050, farmers, government agencies and! The narrative on the subject focuses primarily on two recent food-demand projections ( et... Existing account, or purchase an annual subscription we feed this growing population will shifts... Look ahead several decades impacts need to be maintained at 1.5 % per year instead, our updated are. Climb, while environmental impacts need to be refined periodically as new information becomes available, given the of. Expert Forum on how to feed the world 's poorest people have secure access nutritious... Intensification extend beyond aggregate production and the task force recently extended the deadline to (! Ray DK, Ramankutty N, Foley JA 2013, Pretty and Bharucha,. 68 % —is largely due to differences in model assumptions narrative by laying out quantitative and compelling midcentury for. ” dr Zeunert says will it look like, Science, and Adaptation in the future of agriculture ( et... 2050 virtual resource content ( VRC ) factors were established ( Odegard, 2011 ) projections Challinor et.... An Integrated Assessment yield plateaus ( Grassini et al global cereal demand does imply. Information becomes available, given the uncertainty of long-term projections the right trajectory for... Will agriculture look like in 2050 virtual resource content ( VRC ) factors were established ( Odegard 2011... We use global demand for cereals as a group of young agricultural scientists ( and one scientist. Zeunert will also interview 40 Experts to canvass their views on future likelihoods the supplemental materials intended!